Polymarket Odds ~ Nate Silver Model Odds

In Silver We Trust

Polymarket is an online crypto exchange with close to $1 billion in volume on the U.S. election. As of Monday, August 26th, the odds on Polymarket were very close to the odds from Nate Silver’s model. I can’t blame the market/crypto-libertarian community for converging to the odds produced by the best election modeler, but it is a bit boring.

New Hampshire is the one swing state where Nate is more bullish on Trump than bettors: Nate has Trump at 25% whereas bettors have him at only 20%. I happen to think the polls are likely to slightly understate Trump’s support (for the 3rd time) but think Nate is the gold standard. Consequently, if I had to bet on one of these, I would probably bet on Trump in New Hampshire.