Macro Models

Is the The Assad Regime Collapsing This Weekend?

High-Quality News + Betting Markets + Forecasting Sites

Nov 30, 2024 • 

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Irish Election Update

The Smooth-Brained Case for Betting on Sinn Fein to Win Plurality of Seats

Nov 27, 2024 • 

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The Prediction Markets Underestimated Polling Error

Twitter’s infinite scroll contains many triumphant posts from betting market evangelists.

Nov 25, 2024 • 

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September 2024

Betting Education: Part I

An Educational Series on Gambling

Sep 9, 2024 • 

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Bitcoin and the Election

How Much Will Bitcoin Rise if Trump Wins

Sep 3, 2024 • 

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August 2024

Kalshi Gets Clearing House

A Potential Big Win for Gambling about the Distant Future

Aug 30, 2024 • 

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Polymarket Odds ~ Nate Silver Model Odds

In Silver We Trust

Aug 28, 2024 • 

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Forecasting the Fed

The Futility of Fed Funds Futures

Aug 27, 2024 • 

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Are We Flipping Coins or Pancakes Here?

Uncertainty About Uncertainty

Aug 26, 2024 • 

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Macro Markets and Social Science

On the Potential of a Prediction Market Revolution

Aug 25, 2024 • 

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December 2023

Portfolio Update and 2024 Views

Happy New Year!

Dec 30, 2023 • 

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November 2023

A Forecast Battle Royale on US Recession Odds

Prediction Markets vs. Financial Markets vs. Professional Forecasters vs. Amateur Forecasters vs. Economic Models

Nov 22, 2023 • 

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